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Gold as a safe haven amid uncertainty about the dollar and the market
Gold is back in the spotlight as distrust in fiat money grows
In the latest In Gold We Trust report, economists at Incrementum argue that weakening trust in governments, central banks and fiat currencies — money backed by state decisions — is supporting gold’s further rise in importance. In their view, it is precisely this erosion of trust that is driving renewed interest in the precious metal.
The authors note that in 2025 gold rose by nearly 65 percent in dollar terms, posting its strongest annual return in 45 years. In January 2026, the precious metal gained almost 30 percent before entering a more pronounced correction. After rebounding in February, it no longer set new highs and was heading for a third straight monthly loss.
Incrementum argues, however, that the weakness seen in spring does not change the longer-term market picture. In its view, this is still part of a broader bull market that may only now be entering a more dynamic phase. That outlook is based on the assumption that the current monetary order is clearly wearing out.
The dollar is losing its status as a safe benchmark
The report strongly advances the idea that U.S. dominance after World War II is coming to an end. For decades, the USD served as the world’s main reserve currency, and U.S. Treasuries were seen as a risk-free asset. According to the authors, that order is weakening.
They point to the 1970s as a key turning point, when the Bretton Woods system gave way to the petrodollar system. In practice, oil trade was settled exclusively in USD, and surplus export revenues flowed into the U.S. financial market, mainly into government bonds. Today, they say, this model is gradually being challenged.
The economists from Liechtenstein also link this to tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. They believe that settling oil in other currencies, for example in renminbi, could further weaken the dollar’s position. In their view, that would be another step toward a more multipolar monetary system.
There is also concern in the background about a repeat of stagflation, meaning a combination of high inflation and weak economic growth. The authors recall that after the first wave of inflation in 1973-74, a second, stronger one followed, and gold rose sharply in value during the 1970s.
Central banks are returning to gold
The report also points to growing interest in gold from central banks. According to the authors, this is meant to serve as protection against a possible reset of the global financial system. They also highlight preparations to revalue gold reserves in the United States.
On the U.S. balance sheet, gold is still valued at 42,22 dollars per ounce, even though its market price is many times higher. If reserves were marked to current prices, the Treasury Department could book a significant accounting gain. In a similar vein, the author refers to the idea of raising the value of gold reserves in other countries as well.
In the section on Asia, the report describes the expansion of gold-based infrastructure, especially in China. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is gradually building a system in which gold serves as collateral for repo loans and settlement transactions. In the authors’ view, this could mean the creation of a parallel financial order outside the dollar.
On that basis, Incrementum is sticking to its forecasts for gold. In its inflation scenario, it sees the price at 8 926 USD/oz. in 2030, and in its base case at 4 822 USD/oz. After a sharp correction, the market is currently valuing an ounce at around 4 415 USD, following the January all-time high of 5 625,89 USD/oz.
The authors caution that deep pullbacks could still appear along the way, even in the range of 20 to 30 percent. At current levels, that would mean a drop of 800-1000 USD per ounce. Even so, their main conclusion remains unchanged: in a world of fading trust and high money supply, gold is meant to serve as a defensive asset.
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