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CPI inflation in May 2026 fell below expectations, with the złoty stable
CPI in May below expectations
CPI in Poland rose by 3,1% y/y in May 2026, according to GUS’s flash estimate. That is less than 3,2% in April and clearly below the market consensus of 3,7%. For households, it means price pressure was weaker than economists had expected.
The biggest surprise was the direction of the monthly change itself. According to the data, the consumer basket was 0,3% cheaper in May than in April, while the market had expected a rise of 0,2% m/m. Such a wide gap between expectations and the reading is rare.
The lower reading was most likely driven by food and non-alcoholic beverages, which were seen falling by 1,0% m/m. Energy and gas prices were unchanged, while fuel became 0,1% m/m cheaper. That is important news for drivers and families, who have felt the swings in living costs strongly in recent months.
We will get a fuller picture on 15 June, when GUS publishes the first regular CPI estimate. Then it will become clear how the other categories behaved, since they were not yet broken down in detail in Friday’s release.
What this says about prices in the months ahead
Since the start of 2026, cumulative CPI inflation has reached 2,42%. That is still close to the NBP target of 2,5%, but it does not mean the pricing pressures are over. The economy is still working through the pass-through of higher energy and fuel costs to consumers.
That kind of process does not usually end quickly. Depending on the sector, it can take from a few weeks to several months, so elevated consumer inflation is likely to stay with us at least until the end of 2026. A reading below 3% now looks unlikely.
It is also worth keeping the broader backdrop in mind. Consumer inflation in Poland came in at 3,6% in 2025, the same as a year earlier. In 2023 it was 11,4%, in 2022 it was 14,4%, and in 2021 it was 5,1%.
The NBP inflation target has been exceeded often in recent years. Over the previous 78 months, CPI inflation was within the central bank’s target range for only 7 months. The geometric average for 5 years was 7,43%, for 10 years 4,71%, and for 20 years 3,40%.
These are still preliminary figures, so full conclusions will only be possible after the June report. For now, however, we know that in May food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 0,5% y/y, energy carriers were 5,0% y/y more expensive, and fuels for private transport cost 12,3% more than a year earlier.
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