Lowest Spreads and Flexible Terms.
RPP leaves interest rates unchanged. The euro holds steady above 4.30 zł.
Zloty little changed after the RPP decision, market awaits the ECB
September’s NBP decision and the terse statement after the Monetary Policy Council meeting did not clearly change sentiment on the currency market. The euro exchange rate held above 4,30 zł, and in the morning EUR/PLN was quoted at 4,3173 zł, or 0,3 grosza higher than before.
That means that for 1000 zł it was possible to buy just over 231 euros. For someone exchanging a larger amount, the difference remains small, because at 5000 zł it translates into a change of only a dozen-odd złotys, not a meaningful shift in the overall valuation.
The market did not expect any change in rates and had already priced in the decision. More attention was drawn to the lack of a stronger reaction from the Council to the summer rise in Poland’s CPI (consumer price index) inflation. As Credit Agricole chief economist Jakub Borowski said, the tone of the statement after September’s meeting remained similar to July’s.
It is also important that the RPP is not signaling readiness to restart rate cuts quickly. At the same time, the futures market is pricing in at least two 25-basis-point rate hikes over the next six months. In such an environment, EUR/PLN is still moving within a broad 4,29-4,35 zł range.
Gold price pressures are also affecting the zloty. Brent crude is already costing more than 100 USD per barrel, and gas in Europe is the most expensive since December 2022. That adds to inflationary pressure and does not help emerging-market currencies, although the zloty itself remained relatively calm in the morning.
In the near term, investors’ attention is shifting to the ECB and NBP President Adam Glapiński’s appearance at 15:00. PKO BP analysts say that if sentiment does not deteriorate significantly and oil prices remain stable, EUR/PLN could stay on Thursday near 4,31-4,32 zł, while USD/PLN may hold around 3,70-3,72 zł. In the morning the dollar moved above 3,71 zł, the Swiss franc cost 4,5795 zł, and the British pound 5,029 zł.
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