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The MPC is patient about interest rate hikes; hikes possible in 2027
The MPC is staying cautious and is in no hurry to raise rates for now. From the comments of the NBP governor, it appears policymakers want to first see whether inflation risks actually materialize, rather than react just to fears that they may rise.
For people exchanging money, that is an important signal, because a longer period of stable rates usually means less pressure for sharp currency moves. Economists say that in such a setup, rate hikes could come only at the beginning of 2027 if the inflation scenario worsens.
NBP Governor Adam Glapiński said at Thursday’s conference that the MPC would be ready to act in November if the latest projection showed worrying and mounting inflation signals. At the same time, he does not currently expect a rate change at that point. Economists read this as a continuation of the “wait-and-see” approach, meaning the council is waiting for harder data.
In Erste economists’ view, the council first wants to see inflation risks materialize before deciding to respond. Their forecast still assumes a long period of stable interest rates. Any tightening of monetary policy could come at the beginning of 2027, when the government program limiting fuel price increases expires.
ING economists have a similar view. In their opinion, the tone of the conference suggests that the MPC remains patient and is not inclined to tighten monetary policy quickly as long as inflation is rising mainly because of an external shock. If such an energy shock drags on, rate hikes of 25 bp each are possible in Q1 2027, with a risk of a slight rise in core inflation around the turn of 2026 and 2027.
In October, the MPC kept the reference rate at 3,75 pct. This was the seventh month in a row without a change. For the foreign exchange market, this means that for now the main point of reference remains the central bank’s patience, rather than a quick change in the cost of money.
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