Why is NBP stockpiling 700 tons of gold, and what does that mean for the złoty?

Gold in NBP reserves. Why central banks are buying bullion

700 tons of gold in the vaults of the National Bank of Poland is now one of the biggest talking points around foreign exchange reserves. Behind it are geopolitical tensions, weaker confidence in some government bonds, and the question of whether gold is still the best shield in uncertain times.

Central banks around the world have been buying bullion very actively for several years now. The NBP has become one of the leaders of this trend and has set itself a new target of 700 tons. That signals that gold is no longer seen only as a historical curiosity, but as part of a country’s financial security.

The debate over whether this is the right direction raises several issues. On the one hand, it is about diversification, meaning spreading risk across different assets. On the other, it is about preparing for sharper shocks in the global economy, including possible tensions between China and the United States.

Reserves as a buffer, a message, and insurance for uncertain times

In the view of some economists, buying gold is not just an investment decision. It is also a message to the market and the public. Bullion is a simple symbol of stability, easy to understand even for people who do not follow monetary policy every day.

Dr. Piotr Arak of VeloBank says the NBP started investing in bullion at the right time, as the global order enters a period of greater volatility. In his view, trade barriers are multiplying and geopolitical shock risks are rising.

Dr. Artur Bartoszewicz, an economist at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics, points to the role of communication. In his view, the information that gold is a foundation of reserves is easy for ordinary people to understand as well, and that is an important part of central bank policy.

Prof. Ireneusz Dąbrowski of the Monetary Policy Council stresses that the future global system may be multipolar and based on new currencies. For Poland, however, the most important thing remains having its own safety buffer and strategic flexibility.

Kamil Sobolewski of Employers of Poland takes a more cautious view. He admits that with a 10 or 20 proc. share of gold, he supported purchases, but he already considers a 30 proc. level to be high concentration. As he says, gold is good insurance for an extremely difficult scenario, but a central bank should be resilient to every outcome, not put all its eggs in one basket.

The debate also keeps coming back to gold’s future in reserves. Some see it as a lasting pillar of security, others as protection for exceptionally hard times. In Poland’s case, the argument is no longer about whether bullion is worth holding, but how large a role it should play in the state’s portfolio.