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Fitch raises Poland’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 and 2027
Fitch raises Poland’s GDP forecast, but sees slower growth after 2026
Fitch has raised its forecast for Poland’s GDP growth in 2026 to 3.5 percent. For the following years, it now expects a weaker pace, at 3.0 percent in 2027 and 3.1 percent in 2028. That is a sign that, in the agency’s view, the Polish economy will remain relatively resilient, but once some of the growth impulses fade, momentum may slow.
The report says investment should remain one of the economy’s main drivers. Spending linked to the KPO is expected to help, with activity picking up before the program ends this year. At the same time, Fitch assumes that once this spending fades, investment growth will slow, which will drag down overall economic growth in 2027.
The agency also expects one NBP rate cut of 25 bp. in 2027. At the end of 2026, the policy rate is expected to be 3.75 percent, and at the end of 2027, 3.50 percent. In practical terms, that means room for further monetary easing remains limited, as Fitch points to the recent rise in inflation and high services inflation.
According to the forecast, CPI inflation is expected to stand at 3.7 percent at the end of 2026 and 3.0 percent at the end of 2027. For people exchanging money, the important point is that such an inflation path usually does not support sharp moves in the złoty, but it also does not provide clear backing for a stronger currency.
Fitch also expects the złoty to weaken in the coming years. In its forecast table, the agency put USD/PLN at 3.72 at the end of 2026, 3.75 at the end of 2027 and 3.78 at the end of 2028. Behind that are concerns about Poland’s budget situation and narrowing interest rate differentials versus the euro area and the United States.
That matters for companies and people working abroad as well. A weaker złoty can increase the value of foreign-currency income after conversion, but it also raises the cost of purchases settled in dollars. In September, Moody’s cut Poland’s rating to “A3” from “A2”, bringing it in line with the ratings from S&P and Fitch.
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