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Core inflation is rising faster than the NBP’s target. What’s next for rates?
Core inflation edged up again in August. NBP shows price pressure is still not easing
Core inflation in Poland stood at 3,3% year on year in August 2026, according to data published on 16 September by the NBP (Narodowy Bank Polski — Poland’s central bank). That is higher than in July, when the measure reached 3,1%, and in June, when it came in at 3,0%. It is also the highest reading since July last year.
Core inflation is a measure that strips out the most volatile parts of the basket of prices, above all food and energy. That makes it better at showing whether price growth is a one-off event or is starting to spread more broadly through the economy. That is why economists and the central bank watch this indicator closely.
August’s reading means core inflation is moving further away from the NBP target of 2,5%, but it still remains within the allowed deviation band around that level. For people following the złoty and the cost of living, the key practical takeaway is that price pressure has not gone away, so room for a quick easing of monetary policy remains limited.
The other core inflation measures also point to elevated price pressure. Inflation excluding administered prices came in at 3,3%, inflation excluding the most volatile prices at 3,6%, and the so-called trimmed mean, which removes 15% of the basket with the lowest and highest dynamics, reached 2,8%.
In its statement, the NBP reminds readers that monthly core inflation measures help assess the medium- and long-term trend in price changes. In August, the rise in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) was driven mainly by more expensive fuel. In September, the CPI may increase by 4% y/y, with core inflation likely still below 3,5%.
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