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The złoty has a chance to strengthen after data from Poland, while the euro exchange rate remains stable
The zloty starts the week under pressure as investors await data from Poland
The new week brings a string of macroeconomic releases from Poland that could affect the euro exchange rate and the outlook for the zloty. At the start of the week, the euro was still trading close to 4,37 zł, while the market was also watching stronger quotes for the Swiss franc and the British pound. For people exchanging money, that means moves are still small for now, but the global backdrop matters.
On Monday morning, the euro cost 4,3728 zł, or 0,4 grosz more than before the weekend. Last week, the common currency lost two grosz, while the dollar fell by 2,5 grosz. The euro exchange rate is still moving in the 4,36-4,40 zł range, although in the broader view the EUR/PLN pair remains in the medium-term uptrend that began at the end of January.
At this level, 1000 zł buys about 228 euro today. On 5000 zł, the difference between Monday morning’s level and the earlier weekend is small, as the move amounts to 0,4 grosz per euro. That suggests the market is not showing a bigger move yet, just a short-term correction.
Analysts stress that the most important factors for the zloty right now will be the dollar’s performance and global risk appetite. In a morning note, PKO BP also said that if external conditions remain supportive and data from Poland does not disappoint, the EUR/PLN rate could move closer to 4,36, while USD/PLN could head toward around 3,86.
This week, the market will receive the full set of monthly data from Poland. On Tuesday, September figures on production and producer prices, construction and assembly output, and average employment and wages in the corporate sector will be released. On Wednesday, October consumer sentiment data will come out, on Thursday similar indicators for companies, as well as retail sales and money supply. On Friday, the week will end with the Central Statistical Office’s Statistical Bulletin for September.
In the currency market, the week began more weakly for EUR/USD, the euro-to-dollar rate. Quotes fell below 1,12, which means a weaker euro against the U.S. dollar. The common currency was weighed down by gas prices at their highest in more than 4 years and tensions in France, where the fiscal situation remains difficult.
On the domestic market, the dollar cost 3,9051 zł in the morning, or 1,7 grosz more than before. The Swiss franc was quoted at 4,7376 zł and was more expensive by more than two grosz, while the British pound cost 5,1978 zł, which means an increase of 1,6 grosz. These are the highest levels for CHF/PLN since June and for GBP/PLN since November 2024.
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