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The MPC keeps interest rates unchanged. Will November bring a hike?
The MPC kept rates unchanged, but the market is already looking to November
The Monetary Policy Council decided that NBP interest rates will remain at their current level. That means borrowing from Poland’s central bank is still the cheapest in more than 4 years, and the decision was in line with market consensus.
After the meeting on 7 October 2026, the reference rate stands at 3,75% annually. The other parameters are: the lombard rate at 4,25%, the deposit rate at 3,25%, and the bill discount rate at 3,80% and 3,85% annually. This matters not only for borrowers, but also for people exchanging money, because MPC decisions affect the cost of money in the economy.
Just a month ago, NBP President Adam Glapiński said he did not see any quick changes in rates. Since then, however, new inflation data have emerged. In September, the CPI (consumer price index) reached 4%, moving outside the tolerance band around the NBP’s 2,5% inflation target for the first time in more than a year.
Inflation has become the main argument for some economists, who have started pushing back expectations for further rate hikes. According to Piotr Bartkiewicz, an economist at Bank Pekao quoted in the piece, the MPC could raise rates if inflation is set to stay above target for a year. The futures market is even pricing in an increase in the NBP rate to above 4,50% over the next 2-3 quarters.
For now, Poland’s real interest rate is already negative, because the reference rate has fallen below the CPI inflation rate over the past 12 months. For people with loans, that means the cost of money is still low by recent standards, but for savers the situation remains less favorable. Thursday’s press conference by the NBP president and the statement after the decision may shed more light on future monetary policy, while the next MPC meetings are scheduled for 3-4 November and 1-2 December.
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