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Fitch cuts Poland’s GDP growth forecast for 2026, NBP rates to stay steady
Fitch cuts its forecast for Poland’s GDP in 2026
Fitch has lowered its forecast for Poland’s GDP growth in 2026 to 3.6 percent. For 2027, it kept its expectation at 2.9 percent. The June forecast round also shows that the agency sees NBP interest rates remaining stable at 3.75 percent through the end of 2026.
In Fitch’s view, weaker economic activity data and lower external demand, including a dimmer outlook for the euro zone, prompted the downward revision. At the same time, the agency assumes that growth in 2027 will remain close to 2.9 percent, as fiscal consolidation and weaker public investment financed from EU funds will slightly weigh on the economy.
Fitch also points to several factors supporting growth. These include a tight labor market, wage growth, improved bank lending, and still relatively loose fiscal policy. For 2028, the agency forecasts GDP growth of 3.2 percent, in line with the economy’s potential.
The report also notes the SAFE loan agreement worth EUR 43.7 billion. It is meant to support defense spending and, over time, increase the share of the domestic defense industry in economic growth.
Inflation, rates and the złoty in the agency’s forecasts
After taking into account the energy-price shock, Fitch raised its forecast for inflation in Poland at the end of 2026 to 3.3 percent. In the following years, the agency expects the reading to fall toward the middle of the NBP‘s target band.
Analysts assume the NBP benchmark rate will stay at 3.75 percent through the end of 2026. In 2027, they see one 25 bp cut, followed by the main rate remaining at 3.50 percent through the end of 2028.
In its currency forecast, the agency expects a slight weakening of the złoty. The USD/PLN rate is expected to reach 3.65 at the end of 2026 and 3.68 at the end of 2027. Fitch links this to current macroeconomic trends, the external position and the terms-of-trade shock.
In its forecast table for Poland, the agency also says private consumption is expected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2026, 2.6 percent in 2027 and 2.4 percent in 2028. Investment is projected to rise by 5.0 percent, 2.9 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. For CPI at the end of the period, the forecast is 3.5 percent in 2026, 3.0 percent in 2027 and 2.7 percent in 2028.
Among the three largest rating agencies, Moody’s rates Poland’s creditworthiness the highest, at “A2” with a negative outlook. Poland’s rating from Fitch and S&P is “A-“, one notch lower. S&P’s outlook is stable, while Fitch’s is negative.
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