The dollar could rise above 3.70 zł, while the euro remains stable

The dollar remains at elevated levels, while the euro stays calm

The currency market is starting the day clearly split: USD/PLN remains under pressure from expectations around the Fed, while EUR/PLN is holding close to recent levels. For people exchanging currency, this means the dollar is still relatively expensive, while the euro rate is not yet giving stronger signals of change.

On Tuesday morning, the dollar was priced at 3,6728 zł, more than half a grosz lower than earlier the same day. Even so, this remains close to recent local highs. Just 24 hours earlier, the U.S. currency was valued at nearly 3,70 zł, its highest level in two months.

The impulse came from U.S. labor market data, which came in stronger than expected. In practice, the market began to assume that the Fed may keep monetary policy more restrictive than previously thought. Not long ago, rate cuts were expected, but now the base-case scenario has shifted toward a hike.

In forward-market pricing, about 70% odds are assigned to at least one 25 basis point hike by the end of 2026. Analysts at PKO BP said that in the coming days USD/PLN may return above 3,70, and EUR/PLN may move closer to the upper end of the 4,22-4,26 range. For now, the euro was priced at 4,2383 zł in the morning, 0,6 grosza lower than the day before.

Against the dollar and the euro, the Swiss franc is weaker. The franc rate fell in the morning to 4,6092 zł, or 0,25 grosza less than earlier. The British pound, meanwhile, gained 0,3 grosza and was quoted at 4,9112 zł. For people repaying foreign-currency loans or receiving payments in foreign currencies, the key point is that changes are still small for now, but the dollar remains the most sensitive to U.S. data.

Sources

1. Current currency rates: National Bank of Poland (average exchange rates table)