Lowest Spreads and Flexible Terms.
U.S. labor market data surprised with a rise in employment and a drop in unemployment
The U.S. labor market still supports the Fed in its fight against inflation
October data from the U.S. show that the labor market there remains strong. That matters for the złoty too, because solid data from the American economy give the Fed, the Federal Reserve, more room to keep tightening monetary policy.
Non-farm payrolls, or NFP (non-farm payrolls), rose by 165 tys. in October 2026 from the previous month. That was clearly better than market expectations, which had pointed to an increase of 65 tys.. Private-sector payrolls rose by 159 tys., while the public sector added just 6 tys..
The earlier September reading was weaker, at 29 tys. new jobs versus a forecast of 90 tys.. The data have now been revised up to 60 tys.. Combined revisions for the previous two months added 84 tys. jobs in non-farm sectors.
Since the start of 2026, the world’s largest economy has created 938 tys. new jobs, or an average of 93,8 tys. a month. By comparison, the full-year result in 2025 came to 305 tys., while more than two million jobs were added in 2024. This shows that job creation is moderate, but not weak.
The unemployment rate fell in October to 4,1% from 4,2% in September. In absolute terms, the number of unemployed people fell by 41 tys., employment rose by 463 tys., and the economically inactive population declined by 293 tys.. This means the U.S. economy remains close to full employment.
Wage pressure is also visible in the data. Average hourly earnings came in at 38 USD, up 0,37% from the previous month and 3,12% from a year earlier. The market had expected gains of 0,3% m/m and 2,9% y/y. The average workweek remained at 34,4 hours.
In practice, this set of data supports the scenario in which the Fed may decide to raise interest rates in December. With CPI inflation still elevated, a strong labor market makes it harder to ease monetary policy quickly. For people exchanging currencies, that means the dollar may stay supported for longer by expectations around the U.S. central bank.
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