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The dollar is weakening against the złoty after rising to 3,865 zł
The złoty rebounds after Tuesday’s weakness as the market looks to U.S. PCE data
The złoty started Wednesday with a slight rebound after Tuesday’s selloff against the dollar. In the morning, USD/PLN was quoted at 3,8443 zł, clearly below Tuesday’s peak of 3,8651 zł. That is still a level where 1000 zł buys just over 260 dollars, so for people exchanging larger amounts the difference quickly becomes noticeable.
The domestic market was supported by the flash estimate of September CPI inflation in Poland. The Central Statistical Office said consumer prices rose 4,0% year on year, the highest reading since June 2025. Price growth was slightly below market expectations of 4,1%, but the reading itself reinforces expectations that the NBP may further harden its tone on monetary policy.
It is the outlook for interest rates that is one of the key drivers for the złoty today. ING analysts think the RPP may wait until November for a move, when the NBP’s new inflation projection is released. That scenario would mean rates stay unchanged in October, with the debate over a hike returning only later.
The euro market is also showing a calmer picture. EUR/PLN slipped in the morning to 4,3641 zł, while EUR/USD tested 1,1347. For people paying in euros, this means the złoty remains weaker than it was in the summer, but the dollar’s morning pullback has improved sentiment toward regional currencies.
The most important trigger for the currency market, however, is expected to be this afternoon’s PCE inflation reading from the U.S., the price gauge preferred by the Fed. If the data come in higher than expected, the dollar could strengthen again and pressure on USD/PLN would return. In that scenario, the market does not rule out a move above 3,86 zł, while in the absence of a negative surprise a drop toward 3,8150-3,83 zł would be possible.
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