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The dollar is getting more expensive after the rate hike in the US. USD/PLN is close to 3,81 zł
The dollar and euro are more expensive after the Fed decision, the złoty comes under pressure
After Wednesday’s decision by the Fed, the market clearly raised its valuation of the dollar. On Thursday morning, USD/PLN reached 3,8110 złoty, practically matching its July high. For someone exchanging money, that means the U.S. dollar is clearly more expensive today than it was on Wednesday, when it rose by more than 4 grosze.
The scale of the move in EUR/PLN is also important for the market. The euro broke through 4,35 złoty and stood at 4,3638 złoty in the morning. That is the highest level since November 2024. It is about 1,8 grosze short of the record from November 2023, so the euro remains very close to those highs. At an exchange of 1000 złoty, that level means buying about 229 euros.
Pressure on the złoty stems from the difference between monetary policy in the U.S. and in Poland. The head of the U.S. central bank is signalling a hard fight against inflation, while most members of the NBP (Narodowy Bank Polski — the National Bank of Poland) council do not want to hear about interest-rate hikes. After Wednesday’s FOMC decision, the U.S. central bank’s interest rate is higher than the NBP reference rate, which boosts demand for the dollar and weakens the PLN.
It is worth remembering that a more expensive dollar raises the cost of importing commodities, fuel and electronics. It also indirectly feeds into the prices of goods manufactured in Poland. Diesel remains particularly sensitive, as price increases there translate into inflation. For companies and drivers, it is a signal that purchases settled in USD may be less favourable today than they were on Wednesday.
The currency market also shows a weaker, though smaller, move in other pairs. The Swiss franc cost 4,6097 złoty in the morning after previously falling to 4,5646 złoty, the lowest level in 8 months. The British pound was quoted at 5,0893 złoty after earlier approaching 5,10 złoty and trading at its highest level in almost two months. The market is therefore reacting not only to the Fed, but also to differences in the policies of other central banks.
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