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Euro rate stable despite falling oil prices. Dollar weakens against the złoty
The euro is calm, the dollar and oil are more volatile
On the EUR/PLN market, clear stability is visible today. At 10:36, the euro rate stood at 4,2472 zł and was little changed from Wednesday’s reference level. For people exchanging money, that means the euro costs almost the same as yesterday.
Larger moves appeared on the USD/PLN market. In the morning, the dollar was giving back Wednesday’s gains and moved back to around 3,65 zł. At the same time, technical analysis still allows for a move toward 3,70 zł, although for now that is only a scenario, not a certainty.
Crude oil remains the key backdrop. Its price fell by nearly 6% after reports that as many as 26 ships had passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The market, however, did not react to new threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. Cheaper oil helps Poland as an importer of raw materials and eases inflationary pressure.
The situation on the domestic labor market also matters. Wages in April grew at the slowest pace in 5 years, which additionally supports the złoty. PKO BP analysts said in the morning that better sentiment on capital markets and lower oil prices are supporting the PLN, especially against currencies of energy-importing countries.
In their view, on Thursday EUR/PLN may stay in the 4,24-4,25 range, while USD/PLN should remain below the 3,66-3,68 resistance zone. On the CHF/PLN market, the Swiss franc was quoted at 4,6452 zł in the morning, while the British pound cost 4,9096 zł. The GBP/PLN rate has been moving in a narrow 4,60-4,65 zł range for a month.
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