Lowest Spreads and Flexible Terms.
Core inflation in September 2026 above 3 percent. NBP indicators stabilize
Core inflation in September slightly below expectations, but two other NBP indicators moved sharply higher
Core inflation in Poland in September came in at 3,1% year on year. That was a reading slightly below most economists’ forecasts, which had called for 3,2%. At the same time, two other core inflation measures moved higher, showing that the price picture is still not clear-cut.
This is also important information for people who exchange money or settle accounts in foreign currencies. Core inflation does not capture all prices in the economy, but it helps assess whether price pressure is lasting. In September, the indicator was lower than in August, when it stood at 3,3%, the same as in July and only slightly higher than in June, when it reached 3,0%.
Against the main reading, two auxiliary measures rose more strongly. Inflation excluding administered prices, meaning prices controlled by the state, came in at 4,1%. Meanwhile, the measure excluding the most volatile prices reached 4,0%. A month earlier, both were lower.
The indicator most closely watched by analysts remains core inflation excluding food and energy prices. This measure is intended to better show demand-driven pressure, meaning price increases stemming from strong demand rather than one-off supply shocks. As NBP notes, energy and fuel prices depend largely on global markets, while food prices depend on the weather and the situation in agricultural markets.
The broader CPI, or consumer price inflation, stood at 4,1% year on year in September, up from 3,4% in August. Fuels had the strongest impact on that increase. Gasoline rose by more than 30%, while diesel fuel increased by nearly 46%. Core inflation does not include such changes, which is why it helps separate short-term swings from more persistent price pressure.
It is also worth remembering that since February 2023, NBP had once again been recording CPI core inflation at 2,5%, exactly at the central bank’s inflation target. In September, the indicator remains above that level, but still within the permitted tolerance band.
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