Lowest Spreads and Flexible Terms.
The dollar is the strongest this year. USD/PLN is close to 4 zł, while the euro is rising
The złoty weaker after the MPC decision, the dollar near 4 zł, the euro at this year’s high
In the morning, USD/PLN was at 3,9178 zł, and EUR/PLN at 4,3838 zł. These are important levels for people exchanging money before a trip or settling inflows in foreign currencies. At this rate, 1000 zł buys about 255 dollars, and 5000 zł about 1276 dollars.
The dollar rose by nearly three grosz on Wednesday, so the morning reading means it is getting closer to the psychological 4 zł barrier. The euro gained half a grosz and moved up to this year’s high. For someone exchanging a larger amount, even such a move matters. On 5000 zł, a difference of half a grosz on the euro is about 6 zł.
The market was not helped by the Monetary Policy Council’s statement, which did not bring an interest rate hike. On the euro side, there is additional pressure from EUR/USD falling below 1,12. A weaker euro usually strengthens the dollar, and that also affects emerging-market currencies, including the złoty.
The nearest resistance area for euro-złoty is the 4,39-4,40 zł range. The dollar, meanwhile, tested this year’s highs, and PKO BP analysts pointed to the risk of USD/PLN moving toward 3,93-3,94. At the same time, they expect the local sideways trend in EUR/PLN to continue, meaning swings without a clear breakout from the current range.
The focus remains on today’s press conference by NBP (Narodowy Bank Polski — Poland’s central bank) President Adam Glapiński, scheduled for 15:00. The rates market assumes that by year-end the Council will raise rates at least once, although as recently as September the president said rapid changes should not be expected. This gap between market expectations and the earlier message keeps uncertainty around the złoty elevated.
Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, meanwhile, show that another rate hike in the U.S. is still possible by the end of the year. That supports the dollar. In the morning, the pound sterling was trading at 5,1675 zł, while the Swiss franc was valued at nearly 4,70 zł. For people repaying loans or settling invoices in foreign currencies, this means the basket of major currencies remains demanding for the złoty.
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