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Inflation in the eurozone rises to 3.2 percent in May 2026
Inflation in the euro area is accelerating again, and the market is watching the ECB
HICP inflation in the euro area rose to 3,2% y/y in May 2026, according to preliminary Eurostat data. That is the highest reading since September 2023. For people exchanging euros in Poland, it mainly means greater uncertainty about the European Central Bank’s ECB next moves and possible swings in the euro exchange rate in the coming weeks.
In April, HICP inflation stood at 3,0%, after 2,6% in March and 1,9% in February. Over just three months, the index moved clearly away from the European Central Bank’s target. That matters because for the previous 10 months inflation had been close to 2%, a level seen as consistent with the central bank’s mandate.
Energy prices were the biggest driver, rising in May by 10,9% from a year earlier, despite a decline of 1,1% compared with April. Prices of services also increased, by an average of 3,5%, while unprocessed food rose by 4,2% y/y. Growth in prices of non-energy industrial goods remained weaker, at 0,9% y/y.
Core HICP inflation, which strips out the more volatile energy and food prices, also climbed to 2,5% from 2,2% in April. That suggests price pressure is not limited to fuel alone. In practice, it may mean the ECB will be more cautious about easing monetary policy.
The market expects the ECB Governing Council could raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting. That would be the first such move since September 2023. In Poland, meanwhile, May CPI inflation fell to 3,1%, surprising economists who had expected it to rise to 3,7%.
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