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Retail sales in April almost unchanged, fuel prices up
Retail sales slow in April after a strong March
Retail sales measured in constant prices, that is after adjusting for price changes, were 1.3% higher in April 2026 than a year earlier. That was clearly weaker than the market consensus of 3.0% and much worse than March’s 8.7% y/y increase, which was the strongest in nearly 4 years.
The data also show that part of March’s jump was one-off in nature. Consumers had previously been topping up fuel stocks, and Easter fell right at the start of April, shifting some purchases into March. In April, petrol stations still posted very strong turnover, as fuel sales rose 25.6% y/y in real terms.
In nominal terms, meaning without subtracting inflation, retail sales rose 2.8% in April after a 9.8% y/y increase in March. That means the retail sales deflator was relatively low at 1.48% y/y. After seasonal adjustment, sales were 2.7% higher than a year earlier and 2.8% lower than in March 2026.
Experts: a weaker reading does not necessarily mean a weaker economy
Marcin Luziński of Erste Bank Polska said the April data do not reflect underlying economic weakness, but are mainly the result of calendar effects. He pointed out that Easter fell on 5 April and the pre-holiday trading Sunday was still in March.
In his view, that explains the 5.8% y/y drop in food sales and the weaker result for non-specialised stores, where sales fell 5.9% after a 6.2% increase in March. Together, these categories took about 4.6 percentage points off the annual pace of retail sales growth.
Luziński also highlighted the decline in clothing sales, which somewhat surprised the market after a very strong March. In his view, weather may have affected that result, as an exceptionally cold February delayed the arrival of the spring collection. He added that higher fuel prices linked to tensions in the Middle East may have kept demand at petrol stations elevated for longer.
In the first four months of 2026, retail sales measured in constant prices were 3.4% higher than a year earlier. That is close to the result for the same period in 2025, when growth was 3.3%.
Fuel props up the numbers, durable goods weaken
Across 2025 as a whole, store turnover rose 4.3% in real terms after increasing 2.7% in 2024. That year already showed an improvement after the weaker 2022-24 period, while the earlier consumer boom in 2021-22 was additionally supported by the influx of immigrants and war refugees from Ukraine.
By sector, fuel sales stand out the most. In constant prices, they were 25.6% higher in April than a year earlier. Sales of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics also rose 9.1%. These are the only categories where the CSO reported a clearer increase.
Food and beverage sales were weaker, as were clothing and footwear, where the decline reached 9.5% y/y. Turnover at bookshops and other specialised stores also fell 5.9% y/y. This shows that after a strong March, part of the spending simply shifted in time.
Bank Pekao, in turn, said private consumption has already weakened. Economists at the bank pointed to a slowdown in clothing and footwear sales and a deceleration in furniture, household appliances and consumer electronics sales, which they described as essentially flat.
Their comment also drew the conclusion that households are taking a more cautious approach to durable goods purchases. That may reflect concerns about the economic and financial situation, as well as an earlier slowdown in nominal incomes.
In online retail, sales value in April 2026 was 0.5% higher than a year earlier. At the same time, the share of online sales in total sales fell from 8.8% to 8.6%.
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